The agreement will not only enable Portugal Telecom to be part of the biggest telecoms group in Brazil – Oi has more than 63 million subscriptions, including fixed, mobile and broadband – with the possibility of increasing its stock options over time, but it will also enable its contact-center subsidiary, Dedic, to be integrated with Oi’s Contax, becoming the biggest contact-center-outsourcing company in the country. It will also enable Oi to broaden its operations conjointly with PT’s operations in Europe and Africa.

The investment made by Portugal Telecom (about US$4.9 million) will help boost Oi’s cash position, after Oi’s investment capacity was compromised with its acquisition of Brasil Telecom in 2008. In addition, it will help the operator face the increasing competition in the country’s mobile and broadband markets: GVT has successfully entered Oi’s region, and Telefonica might start operating fixed-line services outside Sao Paulo state.

However, there have been several other questions about Oi’s future since the operator acquired Brasil Telecom in 2008, when the Brazilian government changed regulations to allow the deal based on Oi’s appeal that it would be a purely Brazilian player with plans to expand operations in international markets. The operator was not only able to acquire Brasil Telecom but also got investment from public banks and pension funds to complete the deal.

But Oi, which since the merger is no longer a purely Brazilian player, represented one of the last big opportunities to enter Latin America for an international player such as PT. The government still seems to sympathize with Oi, since it has raised no objections to the deal, so a major takeover in the future probably would not face any barriers.

The question is whether Oi/PT will be able to protect its position, considering the increasing competition from new convergent players, such as Telefonica/Vivo and America Movil/Claro. State-owned pension funds have already shown an interest in reducing their stakes in Oi, clearing more room for PT to strengthen its position in the country. But it will still be a challenge to compete, since Telefonica and America Movil have the regional and worldwide scale to support their offerings in the country.

Wi-Fi, which was considered a threat to mobile operators five years ago (some operators did not allow Wi-Fi-embedded devices to be sold in their stores), has become a potential opportunity for both fixed and mobile operators all over the world. AT&T in the US is bringing Wi-Fi closer into its strategy, while BT UK is emphasizing its offer more every day. Sky’s recent acquisition of The Cloud also demonstrates Wi-Fi’s importance for operators’ strategies. Sky, which offers fixed-line broadband, plans to use The Cloud’s network to offer mobility.

It is also in line with O2’s strategy of moving directly into the fixed-line market in the UK, unlike Vodafone’s, which is to offer fixed/mobile convergence through partnerships.

The technology is a clear alternative that can increase operators’ coverage area, handle some of their voice and data traffic and enable them to offer additional services and value to customers. However, why would O2 start building its own Wi-Fi network from scratch rather than keep its wholesale agreements? There are several likely reasons:

Control – Owning the Wi-Fi hot spots gives the operator more control over subscribers’ data and usage.
Customer experience – O2 will be able to manage all customer experience in terms of providing an easy-to-use, high-quality service. The offer will also provide an enhanced customer experience for smartphone and tablet users, who will be able to experience higher speeds than 3G users when accessing the network in a single place or adopting a nomadic behavior.
Capex/opex – Although no investment figures were announced, it might cost less to build and maintain such a network than to buy wholesale capacity. Because the service will be offered free to O2 subscribers, the economics can make sense.
Coverage – By offering free Wi-Fi connectivity, O2 will be able to offer interesting alternatives to remedy lack of coverage in some regions and add value to the subscription offer.
O2 is significantly pushing Wi-Fi competition in the UK, and this initiative can be adopted in other countries the operator is present in, such as the Czech Republic, Germany, Spain and Latin America. Furthermore, if the plan starts to gain global reach, Telefonica O2 will be able to offer interesting and competitive roaming bundles including connectivity (Wi-Fi) and services (via Jahjah).

Also, operators adopting this strategy will keep their commitment to LTE, since the 4G technology is not only the natural evolution of mobile operators’ current networks but also adds a leadership marketing appeal to operators’ “logos.” Wi-Fi will support operators’ migrations to more-evolved technologies, and its coexistence will last for a long time, since it will be extremely costly and take significant time to build up a good reach with LTE. For example, Informa Telecoms & Media estimates that LTE won’t be economically viable before 2015, because of the coverage needed to handle current and future traffic demands.

O2’s move makes sense, and other players will most likely either adopt a similar strategy (by building or acquiring networks) or partner with other operators. And it is in line with O2’s main strategy to own and control its own network. The network is still too valuable an asset to the operator to be outsourced. In addition, the challenge for O2 will be figuring out how to make the service attractive to increase the number of users from the current 20% of its subscription base.

In addition, as the competition gets fiercer, O2 will be required to create incentives for retailers and coffee shops to install hot spots from O2 rather than another operator. In this case, offering mobile payments and NFC could be a relevant differentiator helping operators acquire new hot-spot locations, thus enabling them to have a competitive coverage area.

Wi-Fi should be deployed more as a strategy to enhance the customer experience than purely as a coverage or offloading alternative. The success of such initiatives will depend on how easy it is for the customer to connect to a Wi-Fi network and how the operator directs the subscriber to the best network available in different regions. Offering client software and specific applications can be an effective way to improve the customer experience.

It is expected that more and more mobile operators will change their mobile broadband offers to keep their networks from being crushed by the enormous demand for video and P2P use and to create a way to better monetize their services. Most operators have abandoned unlimited-data plans, starting with AT&T, which began limiting usage in June 2010 because of the enormous traffic generated by iPhone users.

Sprint has taken a different tack. Rather than doing away with unlimited plans altogether, the US operator has implemented measures to limit the number of people taking such plans. Sprint has announced that, beginning Jan. 30, it will apply a US$10-a-month Premium Data add-on charge to smartphone activations. The plan has already been used for 4G devices and will now be applied to all smartphones (3G also). It is a different approach to managing high data demand, and it is understood that Sprint has several main reasons for implementing such a strategy:

• Sprint’s marketing focus is still on all-inclusive plans (Simply Everything, Everything Data).
• WiMAX is closer to LTE than 3G in its ability to handle traffic demands.
• At end-3Q10, Sprint had an estimated 1.4 million WiMAX subscriptions over Clearwire and 13 million 1xEV-DO subscribers, a relatively small number compared with AT&T (56 million WCDMA subscribers) and Verizon (63 million EV-DO subscribers). Consequently, the operator will put forth considerable effort to increase the take-up of its mobile broadband services (3G and 4G).
• It is an attempt by Sprint to differentiate its business model, being as it is one of the last operators to offer unlimited-data plans.

However, it is important to consider the customer perspective:

• If on average 20% of customers are responsible for 80% of traffic, Sprint will run the risk of being perceived negatively by most of its users because of the price increase, since most users do not need huge data allowances.
• Network coverage is an important factor when a customer is deciding whether to acquire a data plan. Although Sprint has a significant reach with its EV-DO/Rev. A nework, its WiMAX coverage is still small – 3G is still the main focus, because of the low penetration of WiMAX devices – and thus the appeal of unlimited 4G might be limited.
• The low number of devices supporting WiMAX will limit the number of smartphone users Sprint attracts.

Sprint’s prices are similar to those of its main competitors: It offers an unlimited 4G plan plus a monthly cap for 3G of 5GB for US$59.99, whereas for a 5GB plan AT&T charges US$60 and Verizon US$50. The price difference isn’t big, and the unlimited benefit will be restricted to clients covered by the operator’s 4G network. In addition, 5GB might already be too much for most customers who are still primarily using e-mail, microbrowsing and messaging services.

Sprint’s new pricing is an effort to adapt the operator’s commercial mobile broadband offer to the market reality by staying consistent with its main market strategy (Simply Everything). The question is how appealing these new plans will be to 3G-smartphone users, since the unlimited benefit will be incremental, available to only a few customers with 4G devices. The prices Sprint charges 3G users will need to be competitive.

Sprint has adopted an alternative approach to the mobile broadband demand-and-offer equation. However, it might be missing the point of understanding the different needs and demands from different customer segments. Does a BlackBerry user really need an unlimited plan? Doesn’t 5GB a month sound like unlimited to most smartphone users?

 The deal creates a new global player with exposure to a wide range of emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa, as well as Asia Pacific.

 At the closing of the transaction VimpelCom will own, through Weather, 51.7% of Orascom Telecom Holding and 100% of Italy’s third largest operator, Wind. Under the terms of the transaction, Weather shareholders will contribute to VimpelCom their shares in Weather in exchange for a consideration consisting of 325,639,827newly issued VimpelCom common shares, US$1.8 billion in cash and certain assets that will be demerged from Orascom Telecom and Wind Italy.

 The Weather interests in these assets, which principally comprise Orascom Telecom investments in Egypt and North Korea will be transferred to the current Weather shareholders. Wind Hellas Telecommunications in Greece is entirely excluded from the transaction.

 The VimpelCom shares issued to Weather shareholders at the closing of the transaction will represent a 20% economic interest and a 18.5% voting interest in the enlarged VimpelCom Group.

 Once the transaction is closed, Telenor’s economic stake in VimpelCom will be 31.7% and Altimo’s will be 31.4%. Completion of the transaction is expected in 1Q11, with demergers expected to be completed in 3Q11.

Oi Paggo was launched in 2006 as an alternative to traditional credit cards and, since then, the service has failed to gain significant penetration, being limited to only 12 markets in the Southeast and Northeast of Brazil. One of themain reasons for this limited growth is the challenge in attracting affiliate merchants and retailers to accept payments using a mobile phone. The partnership makes a lot of sense as Cielo will make the service available to its 1.8 million PoS (Point of Sales) generating an attractive network of retailers to consumer start using the mobile payment services. On the one hand, it would be difficult to Oi carry the mobile payment operations as the financial services industry requires very specific experience and expertise. On the other hand, Cielo will be able to use a tested platform that will save time and money to widen its services options. In addition, the partnership with Banco do Brasil will offer OI an addressable market of more than 60 million bank customers.

This partnership demonstrates that finally banks are realizing the importance of mobile services as an alternative payment option and most of the security issues and concerns from the first m-payments and m-banking services are not an issue anymore. Furthermore, this example shows that partnerships will be essential for operators in order to continue growing their business and add value to the whole business chain.

O plano já começa errado na definição do que é banda-larga para o governo. Pacotes de 512Kbps e 1Mbps já não são considerados banda-larga a muito tempo pelos países desenvolvidos que já oferecem velocidades superiores ad 50 Mbps em pacotes comerciais. Outro ponto é em relação ao investimento, que está sendo anunciado em ano eleitoral, mas é um plano que será deixado para o próximo governo.

A promoção do governo no ressurgimento da Telebrás é um pouco eufórico demais. Em primeiro lugar, a rede de fibra ótica da Eletronet está longe de atender as necessidades das operadoras por capacidade de Backhaul e me parece não ter lógica o governo oferecer serviços de banda-larga para o cliente final em um mercado aberto com autorizadas e concessionárias que deveriam fazer este papel.

O governo deveria dar incentivos às operadoras a levarem serviços de banda-larga a municípios menos favorecidos, via redução de juros de empréstimos, menores impostos e o uso dos fundos de telecomunicações. O governo não tem o expertise necessário para prestar o serviço e sua atuação me parece no mínimo desastrosa. O investimento em rede de última milha para oferecer serviços ao cliente final pode custar muito aos cofres públicos, fora os custos de manutenção destes clientes (se der problema, a população reclama para quem?).

Outro ponto é que o governo precisa ser estadista e pensar a longo prazo, e apenas levar conexão à população é apenas um pedaço muito pequeno de uma política de inclusão digital. Do que vale levar Internet se a população não tem conteúdo? Onde está a participação do ministério da cultura e da educação neste plano? O acesso á Internet é para acessar comunidades sociais, chats????

Infelizmente este me parece ser mais uma campanha para a eleição presidencial, como o PT fez a alguns anos atrás em São Paulo prometendo Internet gratuita para toda população. Agora resta aos “Dudas Mendonças” de plantão pensarem em um jingle para rimar Telebrás e Dilma.

Vejam o comentário do Renato Cruz sobre o Plano Nacional de Banda Larga:

http://blogs.estadao.com.br/renato-cruz/

A ANATEL buscou deixar a regulamentação bem aberta para que o mercado defina quais serão as melhores práticas de mercado. As MVNOs geram um grande potencial para as operadoras pois elas podem se unir a empresas que têm uma marca forte em segmentos específicos e uma boa rede de distribuição.

No dia 26 de Maio de 2010 a Informa Telecoms & Media estará organizando um workshop sobre MVNOs em São Paulo com o objetivo de incentivar o diálogo entre operadoras e potenciais MVNOs, trazendo casos internacionais tanto de operadoras virtuais bem sucedidas como de operadoras que geraram bons resultados com parcerias com MVNO.

Segue o link do evento: http://www.crmail.com.br/ibc/emailer/cgi-bin/r.exe?c=IBC4821&d=4405517&t=IBC4821&e=374139&s=20100412&l=HOT_SITE&f=0&h=1

Realmente fica muito difícil desenvolver apenas o software quando se trata de aparelhos móveis, pois a interatividade do usuário com o aparelho faz com que design/hardware seja integrado com o software. Afinal se olharmos os novos aparelhos touch screen, são apenas telas pretas com designs muito semelhantes. A diferença está no software, pois é ele que possibilita a interface do usuário com o aparelho e os serviços móveis.

Vamos ver se o design do novo KIN agrada os consumidores e se o sistema operacional da MS será forte para combater os sistemas já maduros da Nokia, Apple e Blackberry e principalmente o Android, OS que tem preenchido lacunas deixadas por empresas que se focaram no hardware e se esqueceram do software (LG, Motorola, Samsung).

E vocês? O que acharam do novo modelo?

Apesar desta discussão ter algum sentido, uma vez que as operadoras estão realmente tendo dificuldade em aumentar a receita média por usuário em suas redes móveis, ir contra empresas da Internet e provedores de conteúdo pode não ser a melhor idéia. 

Este posicionamento parece ir contra todas as tendências de neutralidade da rede. Adicionalmente, o que adiantaria ter acesso a Internet se não houvesse conteúdo? Afinal, a Internet (fixa é móvel) é completamente baseado em conteúdo e os sistemas de busca são fundamentais nesta cadeia de negócios.  

A Google ainda anunciou na semana passada o lançamento de uma infra-estrutura de fibra ótica que vai até a casa do cliente (FTTH) nos EUA. O argumento da empresa de busca na Internet é de que as redes das operadoras não estão atendendo com qualidade a demanda de usuários do serviço. E será que a Telefônica irá lançar seu próprio sistema de busca? 

Existe uma dependência muito grande entre as 02 empresas, e não vejo (pelo menos no médio prazo) outro modelo de negócios se não a parceria entre estes 02 mundos

Após 4 anos trabalhando no Yankee Group para América Latina, estou deixando a empresa para assumir um novo desafio profissional.

O Blog será mantido e espero continuar contando com a colaboração de todos.

Em breve atualizo a todos sobre minha nova posição no mercado.

Obrigado e Abraços.

Júlio Püschel